Frequently Updated Forecasts

This page hosts descriptive statistical analyses and frequently updated forecasts of key variables characterizing the evolution of the pandemic. Methodologies include structural epidemiological modelling and purely statistical methods.

By Arianna Agosto, Alexandra Campmas, Paolo Giudici and Andrea Renda
A statistical model to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemics, for a number of European countries. For more details on the methodology, see also Arianna Agosto and Paolo Giudici.

By Luigi Brugnano and Felice Iavernaro
Forecasts for Italy and macro regions, based on SIR models (for the whole country and multiregion). Forecasts for Spain are also available.

By Giovanni Cerulli
Forecasts of the date in which the expected number of new cases will drop to zero, based on an autoregressive model estimated with machine learning techniques.

By Franco Peracchi
A note with descriptive statistics of the Italian data on the pandemic and a statistically based forecast of the date in which the number of new positive cases is zero, for the country as a whole and for each region with sufficiently informative data.

By StatGroup-19 (Fabio Divino, Alessio Farcomeni, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Gianfranco Lovison, Antonello Maruotti)
Regional forecasts (click on the tab: Modeling), for a number of variables (total cases, hospitalized, ICU, deaths), with a brief description of the methodology. In the neighboring tab, short term ICU occupation forecasts, with a brief description of the methodology.

Webinars

This page hosts links to webinars organized by various institutions.

By the Bendheim Center for Finance of Princeton University
Paul Romer offers very insigtful thoughts on how to cope with the pandemic, in particular proposing an approach less based on social distancing and more on random testing and isolation.

Olivier Blanchard focuses on the different tasks for the fiscal authorities in the different phases of contrasting the pandemic, arguing that strategies will need to be adapted as new information accrues.

Angus Deaton reviews the main insights of his analysis on the deaths of despair (with Anne Case), and explores the implications of the COVID-19 pandemics for inequality and health conditions.

Joseph Stiglitz assesses the US preparedness and policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemics, looking both at health and economic aspects.

Michael Kremer reports on the optimal incentives needed to ensure a speedy discovery and manufacturing of vaccines for the COVID-19 pandemics, both at a national and international level.

Daron Acemoglu presents the results of a SIR-type model that allows for age dependent reproduction numbers and ICU capacity constraints, showing that the Pareto frontier (in terms of deaths and lost output) improves dramatically with age-targeted containment policies. Interestingly, these results are similar to those reported by Favero et al for Italy.

By the Initiative on Global Markets, of Chicago Booth
Jim Stock moderates a panel discussion with Andrew Atkeson, Martin Eichenbaum, Francesco Lippi, Thomas Philippon and Eric Budish. Each of the panelists had written recent papers on how to approach the problems in modeling the economic effects of COVID-19. The papers and the slides of the presentations are also available.

By The University of Pavia and EIEF
The webinar, given by Paolo Giudici and Franco Peracchi, presented econometric and statistical methods aimed at estimating, monitoring and predicting the evolution of the contagion curve of the COVID-19. The methodology has been exemplified for the countries most hit: United States, Spain, Italy, France, Germany and China.

Notes by EIEF Faculty

This page hosts notes, comments, analyses and newspaper articles authored or co-authored by members of EIEF faculty. Some of the contributions are in Italian.

By Graziella Bertocchi (in Italian)
Shows that the stronger resilience of women to the contagion only holds for age brackets above 50, and is reversed for younger ages. Conjectures that this reflects age differences in labour force participation, and concludes that bringing women back to work earlier than men might backfire; appeared in the online newspaper La Voce on April 8, 2020. An extension, in English, provides a cross-country comparison confirming that working-age women are as susceptible as men, if not more, to COVID-19; appeared in the online CEPR Policy Portal VOX on April 23, 2020.

By Tito Boeri and Luigi Guiso (in Italian)
Argues that the banking foundations can play an important role in providing guarantees for the loans needed to cushion the immediate effects of the crisis induced by the response to the pandemic; appeared in the online newspaper La Voce on April 7, 2020.

By Ruben Durante, Luigi Guiso and Giorgio Gulino
Shows that areas in Italy with stronger civic capital were quicker to internalize the negative externality of mobility on the spread of contagion and to comply with the restrictions imposed by the Government. Appeared in the online CEPR Policy Portal VOX on April 16, 2020. An academic paper extends the analysis also to Germany and measures the reduction in the number of deaths that would have been observed if all Italian regions had the highest civic capital.

By Luigi Guiso and Matteo Paradisi (in Italian)
Suggests that a gradual lifting of the lockdown should start from those sectors which simultaneously require less physical distance among workers and whose productions are either more used by other sectors or more frequently exported; appeared in the newspaper Il Foglio on April 19, 2020.

By Luigi Guiso and Daniele Terlizzese (in Italian).

  • An analysis of the impact of the economic shock on the households whose components work in the sectors directly affected by the lockdown decided on March 23. A shorter version, focussing on households with self-employed workers, appeared in the online newspaper La Voce on April 2, 2020.
  • Argues that letting the pandemics spread would have a larger cost, not only in terms of human lives, but also for the economy (appeared in the Italian newspaper Il foglio on March 28, 2020).
  • Argues that the period of lockdown should be seized to reorganize production processes and make the working environment safer, to restart production as soon as possible (appeared in the Italian newspaper Il foglio on March 24, 2020)
  • Some thoughts on the nature of the economic crisis entailed by the social distancing measures enacted on March 11 to contain the pandemic, with an analysis of the role and limits of the standard responses to “flatten the curve” of the economic impact and a suggestion about another possible response (appeared in the Italian newspaper Il foglio on March 20, 2020).

By Francesco Lippi, Fernando Alvarez, David Argente
Uses a simple Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiology model, calibrated with available micro data, to study the optimal lockdown policy. The model incorporates a constraint on hospital capacity and explores alternative policies involving sierological testing or virological testing coupled with contact tracing and quarantine.

By Georgy Egorov, Ruben Enikolopov, Alexey Makarin and Maria Petrova
Shows that endogenous social distancing, usually thought to be a pro-social behavior more likely to take place in more homogeneous societies, can instead prevail in more ethnically diverse ones. Explores the issue theoretically and with data from Russia and U.S..

By Markus Brunnermeier, Jean-Pierre Landau, Marco Pagano and Ricardo Reis
A proposal on how to channel funds to firms facing a temporary but sharp drop in their revenues. Appeared in Vox-EU and in Italian, in the newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore on March 20, 2020.

By Elena Carletti, Tommaso Oliviero, Marco Pagano, Loriana Pelizzon and Marti Subrahmanyan
Estimates the drop in profits and the equity shortfall triggered by the COVID-19 shock and the subsequent lockdown.

By Marco Pagano, Christian Wagner and Josef Zechner
Investigates whether security markets price the effect of social distancing on firms' operations, showing that firms that are more resilient to social distancing outperform those with lower resilence.

By Cecilia Sala, Francesco Del Prato and Matteo Paradisi (in Italian)
A series of videos on how to read the numbers of the pandemics.

By Gianluca Rinaldi and Matteo Paradisi
An estimate of fatality rates by age, based on population level statistics for the municipalities in Lombardy which were first isolated. The estimate relies on well measured overall death rates, eschewing measurement problems in confirmed cases and covid-attributed deaths. 

By Franco Peracchi and DanieleTerlizzese
Shows how to use the available information, in conjunction with minimal, easily interpretable and credible assumptions, to obtain a range of estimates for the point prevalence of COVID-19 infection in Italy as a whole and in its various regions..

By Facundo Piguillem and Liyan Shi
Uses an epidemiological model to evaluate the lockdown policies, allowing for a concern for consumption smoothing that increases the length of the lockdown but reduces its intensity. The paper also explores the alternative of massive random testing, showing that it could generate sizeable welfare gains.

By Fabiano Schivardi, with Guido Romano

  • Computes the financial needs of firms facing a liquidity squeeze due to the fall in revenues, in Italian (appeared in the Italian online newspaper La Voce on March 24, 2020).
  • A follow-up (in Italian) of the exercise, to assess whether the measures introduced by the Government suffice to meet the liquidity needs of SMEs, stressing the need for their speedy implementation (appeared in the Italian online newspapaer La Voce on April 10, 2020) .

Notes by Other Researchers

This page hosts notes, comments, analyses and newspaper articles by other individual researchers or research groups.

By Andrew Atkeson
Details and simulation of one of the first dynamic models of the contagion integrating an epidemiologic structure (susceptible, infected, recovered; SIR) and an economic one. The bottom line is similar to the one offered by the Imperial College Response Team, pointing to possible new waves of contagion if the social distancing measures are lifted too quickly.

By Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Giacomo Calzolari, Andrea Dossena, Alessandro Lanza, Alberto Pozzolo (in Italian)
Identifies, using two measures of economic interdipendence (IO matrix and a more detailed graph describing the various value chains), those sectors whose opening would have a larger inpact in restarting the Italian economy.

By Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (in Italian)
A newspaper article that clarifies advantages and disadvantages concerning the ESM and the related Covid facility, and argues that economic arguments hardly justify any opposition to its use; appeared in the newspaper il Foglio

By Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, Mathias Trabandt
Integrates the epidemiologic model (susceptible-infected-recovered; SIR) with a macro model, arguing that the competitive equilibrium is inefficient and the optimal policy involves restricting consumption and work, alleviating the number of deaths at the expense of a deeper recession.

By Carlo Favero
An epidemiologic model (susceptible,exposed, infected, resistant) combined with a capacity constraint on ICU, which makes the mortality dependent on the available ICU relative to the number of severe infections, calibrated on Lombardy data, to assess the evolution of the contagion and the effect of the social distancing measures implemented.

By Carlo Favero, Andrea Ichino and Aldo Rustichini
An epidemiologic model (susceptible,exposed, infected, resistant) embedding a capacity constraint on ICU and differenciating the basic reproduction number by age class, employment status and economic sector, to characterize the efficient frontier, in terms of deaths and GDP losses, of the containment policies.

By Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
An analysis of the economic consequences of the pandemic crisis and of the tools to address it.

By Ali Hortacsu, Jarni Liu and Timoty Schwieg
Provides estimates for the unobserved rate of infection, based on assumptions about travel between the epicenter and a target zone, considering various US zones.

By Julian Kozwloski, Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran
Highlights a persistent effect on the probability of tail events associated with the realization of the COVID-19 shock, and explores the consequences of this scarring effect on the persistence of its economic consequences.

By the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

  • The results of a micro-simulation, epidemiological model, documenting the spread of the contagion and the effectiveness – or lack thereof – of various measures of social distancing. Highlights the likelihood of multiple waves of contagion, unless strict measures of social distancing are kept in place until a vaccine is available.
  • Another micro simulation showing, for each country, the predicted number of contagion and deaths, as well as the effects of mitigation and suppression policies.
  • A third exercise, focusing on European countries, computing the number of infected starting from observed deaths and quantifying the effects of mitigation and suppression policies.
  • A fourth exercise, focusing on Italy with details for the Italian regions, using Google data on mobility to estimate the number of deaths avoided by lockdown policies and a simulation of the additional deaths and infection contagion resulting from a partial lifting of such policies, absent other containment policies. 

By Charles Manski and Francesca Molinari
Provides range estimates for the unobserved rate of infection, based on partial identification theory, for Illinois, New York and Italy.

By Tomas Pueyo
A series of three articles, offering an informed and sobering account on the spread of the contagion and on the measures to contain it, with lots of useful data and links.

Emanuele Tarantino

 Tarantino

Affiliations

Professor, LUISS (on-leave from the University of Mannheim).
Research Affiliate, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance.
Research Affiliate, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Education

European University Institute, Ph.D., 2010
London School of Economics and Political Science, M.Sc., 2005
University of Salento, B.A., 2003

CV

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Research Interests

Industrial Economics, Financial Economics, Innovation Economics.

Selected Publications

“Patent Pools, Vertical Integration, and Downstream Competition” (with M. Reisinger), RAND Journal of Economics, 2019, 50(1), 168-200.

“Lending Standards over the Credit Cycle” (with G. Rodano and N. Serrano-Velarde), Journal of Financial Economics, 2018, 31(8), 2943-2982.

“Bankruptcy Law and Bank Financing” (with G. Rodano and N. Serrano-Velarde), Review of Financial Studies, 2016, 120(2), 363-382.

“Vertical Integration, Foreclosure and Productive Efficiency” (with M. Reisinger), RAND Journal of Economics, 2015, 46(3), 461-470.

“Conversations with Secrets” (with B. Ganglmair), RAND Journal of Economics, 2014, 45(2), 273-302.

Working Papers

“Cheap Trade Credit and Competition in Downstream Markets” (with M. Giannetti and N. Serrano-Velarde).

“Learning When to Quit: An Empirical Model of Experimentation in Standards Development” (with B. Ganglmair and T. Simcoe).

“The Effects of Horizontal Mergers When Firms Compete in Prices and Investments” (with M. Motta).

Honors, Awards and Fellowships

Economic Advisory Group on Competition Policy of the European Commission (since 2017)

Unicredit-Mediocredito Franco Modigliani Fellowship (2010-2014)

Contacts

Fax: +39.06.4792.4872
E-mail: emanuele.tarantino[at]eief.it
Web: https://sites.google.com/site/etarantino//

   
   
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