Alexey Makarin

Makarin

Affiliation

Assistant Professor, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance

Education

Northwestern University, Ph.D., 2019
Northwestern University, M.A., 2014
Higher School of Economics, Moscow, B.A., 2012

CV

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Research Interests

Political Economy, Development Economics, Applied Microeconomics.

Publications

Can Online Off-The-Shelf Lessons Improve Student Outcomes? Evidence from A Field Experiment” (with Kirabo Jackson), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, August 2018, vol. 10, no. 3, pp. 226-254

Reducing Bureaucratic Corruption: Interdisciplinary Perspectives on What Works” (with Jordan Gans-Morse, Mariana Borges, Theresa Mannah-Blankson, Andre Nickow, and Dong Zhang), World Development, May 2018, vol. 105, pp. 171-188

Working Papers

"Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence from Russia” (with Ruben Enikolopov and Maria Petrova)

Trading with the Enemy: The Impact of Conflict on Trade in Non-Conflict Areas” (with Vasily Korovkin)

National or Sub-National Parties: Does Party Geographic Scope Matter?” (with Ricardo Pique and Fernando Aragon)

Social Image, Networks, and Protest Participation” (with Ruben Enikolopov, Maria Petrova, and Leonid Polishchuk)

Contacts

Phone: +39.06.4792.93556
Fax: +39.06.4792.4872
E-mail: alexey.makarin[at]eief.it
Web: https://alexeymakarin.github.io/

Graziella Bertocchi

Bertocchi

Affiliations

Full Professor, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia
President, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance
Director, Centre for Economic Research (RECent)

Education

University of Pennsylvania, Ph.D., 1988
University of Modena, BA, 1980

CV

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Research Interests

Macroeconomics, Comparative Development, Political Economy, Family Economics, Household Finance, Research Evaluation

Selected Publications

"The Long-Term Determinants of Female HIV Infection in Africa: The Slave Trade, Polygyny, and Sexual Behavior" (with Arcangelo Dimico), Journal of Development Economics 140, 2019, 90-105.

"Women, Medieval Commerce, and the Education Gender Gap" (with Monica Bozzano), Journal of Comparative Economics 44, 2016, 496-521.

"Bibliometric Evaluation vs. Informed Peer Review: Evidence from Italy" (with Alfonso Gambardella, Tullio Jappelli, Carmela Nappi and Franco Peracchi), Research Policy 44, 2015, 451-466.

"Slavery, Education, and Inequality" (with Arcangelo Dimico), European Economic Review 70, 2014, 197-209.

"Who Holds the Purse Strings within the Household? The Determinants of Intra-family Decision Making" (with Marianna Brunetti and Costanza Torricelli), Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 101, 2014, 65-86.

"The Racial Gap in Education and the Legacy of Slavery" (with Arcangelo Dimico), Special Issue on Slavery, Colonialism and Institutions Around the World, Journal of Comparative Economics 40, 2012, 581-595.

"The Enfranchisement of Women and the Welfare State", European Economic Review 55, 2011, 535-553.

"Marriage and Other Risky Assets: A Portfolio Approach" (with Marianna Brunetti and Costanza Torricelli), Journal of Banking & Finance 35, 2011, 2902-2915.

"The Evolution of Citizenship: Economic and Institutional Determinants" (with Chiara Strozzi), Journal of Law and Economics 53, 2010, 95-136.

"The Law of Primogeniture and the Transition from Landed Aristocracy to Industrial Democracy", Journal of Economic Growth 11, 2006, 41-68.

"Did Colonization Matter for Growth? An Empirical Exploration into the Historical Causes of Africa's Underdevelopment" (with Fabio Canova), European Economic Review 46, 2002, 1851-1871.

Honors, Awards and Fellowships

Research Fellow: CEPR and IZA

Research Associate: CHILD-CCA

Member: Academia Europaea and Dondena

Contacts

Phone: +39.06.6790013
Fax: +39.06.4792.4872
E-mail: graziella.bertocchi[at]eief.it
Web : http://morgana.unimore.it/bertocchi_graziella/

Highlights 2019

WP 19/12

In “Multidimensional Diffusion Processes in Dynamic Online Networks” Eleonora Patacchini, with David Easley and Christopher Rojas, present a novel statistical framework to estimate peer influence effects for a multidimensional diffusion process which uses machine learning to control for common preferences driving product adoption decisions. This method adopts the fundamental insight from collaborative filtering that users with similar past adoption behaviors have similar preferences. The results show that the effect of peer influence on product adoption decisions, relative to common preferences, is much smaller than it would appear if past product adoptions behaviors were ignored. In particular, the authors find that using this machine learning algorithm leads to estimates of peer influence significantly lower than those obtained by matching with other observable variables in the data. They also find significant heterogeneity in peer influence across individuals and for different types of products.

WP 19/11

In “Posterior moments and quantiles for the normal location model with Laplace prior” Franco Peracchi, with Giuseppe De Luca and Jan R. Magnus, derives explicit expressions for arbitrary moments and quantiles of the posterior distribution of the location parameter η in the normal location model with Laplace prior, and uses the results to approximate the posterior distribution of sums of independent copies of η.

WP 19/10

In “The Analytical Theory of a Monetary Shock” Francesco Lippi (with Fernando Alvarez) present a new method to analyze the propagation of a once and for all monetary shock in a broad class of sticky price models, which is based on the eigenvalue-eigenfunction representation of the cross-sectional process for price adjustments and provides a thorough characterization of the whole profile of the impulse response function of any moment or function of interest. The authors use this method to derive a general analytic characterization of the “selection effect” in sticky-price models, which is one of the main reason why different sticky price models yield different real effects. Then they show that, following a small monetary shock, the response of even center moments (i.e. the cross-sectional dispersion of prices) is zero at all horizons. They also derive a parsimonious representation of the output response to monetary shocks, and of the key parameters determining its shape. Finally, they study how the propagation of monetary shocks is affected by the aggregate shocks to the volatility faced by firms.

WP 19/09

In “(Macro) Prudential Taxation of Good News”, Facundo Piguillem, with Jean Flemming and Jean-Paul L’Huillier, analyzes the problem of macro-prudential regulation in the presence of shocks to income growth. Positive shocks to growth lead to optimal allowance for more private borrowing. However, when the cumulated amount of borrowing is high enough, taxation of debt is optimal in order to make agents internalize the systemic externality of their decisions.
Moreover, taxation of borrowing is pro-cyclical because there is little or no need for taxation in the case of negative shocks to growth. On the contrary, in the case usually analyzed in this literature so far as contemporaneous (level) shocks to income, the optimal taxation of borrowing is counter-cyclical, as it is optimal to tax debt in bad times, when agents need to borrow the most for precautionary savings motives. The main policy implication of the authors’ analysis is that regulators should pay special attention to debt accumulation in booming times and it is then, and only then, that borrowing should be regulated.

WP 19/08

In “Simple fiscal arithmetic of a dual currency regime” Francesco Lippi observes that there are several historic episodes of countries that resort to printing a fiat token parallel with the official currency when faced with fiscal difficulties. In order to understand the implications of such a policy, he presents a simple model to analyze the workings of equilibria where the parallel currency is valued in equilibrium and discusses its consequences for real allocations in terms of a simple equivalent fiscal policy. He shows that monetary injections amount to a real transfer from the whole population to the fraction of agents receiving the transfer. It is thus completely equivalent to a fiscal policy, implemented through ordinary taxation, in favor of the recipient group.

WP 19/07

In “Hurricanes, Climate Change Policies and Electoral Accountability”, Stefano Gagliarducci and Eleonora Patacchini, with M. Daniele Paserman, use data on the universe of federal disaster declarations between 1989 and 2014 to document that Congress members from districts hit by hurricanes are more likely to support bills promoting more environmental regulation and control the year after the disaster. The response to hurricanes does not seem to be driven by logrolling behavior or lobbyists' pressure, and it is associated with an electoral penalty in the following elections. Unlike voters' support which is only temporary and is prompted by the direct experience of the hurricane's damage, the change in the legislative agenda is persistent over time and mainly promoted by representatives in safe districts, those with more experience and those with strong pro-environment records. This evidence shows that extreme events can trigger a permanent change in politicians' beliefs. However, when the appropriate political response to the disaster is unpopular, only the politicians with sufficient electoral strength or with strong ideologies are willing to promote policies with short-run costs and long-run benefits. More broadly, these findings suggest that electoral accountability may be counter-productive when policy making needs to be forward-looking. This raises the question of whether some institutions, such as two-year legislatures, are appropriate under circumstances that require instead a less short-sighted approach.

WP 19/06

In “The Extensive Margin of Aggregate Consumption Demand”, Claudio Michelacci, Luigi Paciello and Andrea Pozzi use highly-disaggregated US data to decompose changes in aggregate non-durable consumption expenditure into intensive and extensive margins. The intensive margin reflects the amount spent on products already purchased by households in previous periods. The extensive margin reflects net additions of products to the consumption basket, given by the difference between additions of new products/varieties and removals of previously purchased products/varieties. The authors show that about half of the cyclical fluctuations of aggregate non-durable consumption expenditure is accounted for by net additions, driven mostly by the pro-cyclicality of the rate at which households add new varieties, while removals are comparatively acyclical. This result might be due to changes in firms’ marketing and/or pricing strategies rather than to household demand behavior. To address this issue the authors focus on the effects of the federal government's Economic Stimulus Payment (ESP) to households in 2008. Since the response is gauged by comparing households that receive the payment randomly over time, the estimated responses can be interpreted as characterizing household behavior in partial equilibrium. The authors show that the previous patterns are largely explained by the fact that households respond to income increases by adopting new product varieties in their consumption basket. They show that fluctuations in household adoption are a prominent determinant of the aggregate demand for new products and amplify the long-run welfare effects of aggregate shocks.

WP 19/05

In: “Monetary Policy in a World of Cryptocurrencies”, Pierpaolo Benigno investigates whether the presence of multiple currencies, such as cryptocurrencies, can jeopardize the primary function of Central Banks – controlling prices and inflation – or eventually limit their operational tools –i.e. the interest rate. The short answer is: yes, it can. Starting from the benchmark single-currency model, where the Central Bank controls the rate of inflation by setting the nominal interest rate and the initial price level is instead determined by an appropriate real tax-policy, he extends the framework to allow for multiple currencies. In a two-currency world, the growth rate of the cryptocurrency sets an upper bound on the nominal interest rate and the attainable inflation rate, if the government currency is to retain its role as medium of exchange. In a world of multiple competing currencies issued by profit-maximizing agents, the nominal interest rate and inflation are both determined by structural factors, and thus not subject to manipulation, a result hailed by the proponents of currency competition. The paper also proposes some fixes for the classical problem of indeterminacy of exchange rates.

WP 19/04

In: “Tax Professionals: Tax-Evasion Facilitators or Information Hubs?”, Marco Battaglini, Luigi Guiso, Eleonora Patacchini, with Chiara Lacava, investigate whether tax professionals can significantly affect the nature of the relationship between tax authorities and taxpayers. To this aim they merge and analyze tax records of 2.5 million taxpayers in Italy with the respective audit files from the Italian revenue agency (IRA) for seven fiscal years. They show that tax professionals can facilitate tax evasion by helping evasion-prone taxpayers take advantage of the complexity of tax rules. The implication is the emergence of a market for tax professionals where some of them specialize in offering evasion advice to evasion-prone taxpayers. A smart tax authority should then invest resources to learn the accountants’ types, diverting attention from the taxpayers to their intermediaries and auditing with higher probability clients of more evasion-prone tax professionals. The authors find that the IRA policy function is sensitive to tax professionals’ observable characteristics, and significantly (economically and statistically) tilts audits towards tax professionals with a higher share of tax evaders in the past. Despite the IRA’s targeted action, there is strong evidence that evasion-prone taxpayers match with evasion prone-tax accountants, implying that indeed some accountants specialize as tax-evasion facilitators. In addition (or alternatively), tax professionals act as information hubs: taxpayers can learn about the tax authority’s policy because tax professionals can pool the audit experiences of many customers over many years and share this information with each of their clients. From the point of view of the taxpayer, this speeds up learning about the tax authority policy function, providing an additional incentive to rely on tax professionals. From the point of view of the tax authority, auditing one taxpayer can, through the information disseminated by the tax professionals, affect the compliance of the other clients. Indeed, the authors find evidence that reported income not only responds positively to a directly experienced audit but also to the audits of the other customers of one’s own tax professional.

WP 19/03

In “Weight, Reference Points, and the Onset of Eating Disorders”, Eleonora Patacchini, with T. Arduini and D. Iorio, investigates whether the development of eating disorders, in the form of purging, is influenced by peers' body size through interpersonal comparisons. Using detailed information on recent cohorts of U.S. teenagers, they document a sizeable and significant negative effect of high school peers' Body Mass Index on purging behavior during the adolescence for females, but not for males. Interpersonal comparisons among females operate through the formation of a distorted self-perception: teenage girls with relatively thin female peers perceive themselves heavier than they actually are. The girls who are more susceptible to this mechanism are those having peers who are thinner, more popular, more (verbally) able, and with more educated parents.

WP 19/02

In “Coalition Formation in Legislative Bargaining”, Marco Battaglini proposes a new model of multilateral bargaining to study how majorities are formed in legislatures when coalitions are heterogeneous in terms of the surplus they are expected to generate. In the model, a formateur picks a coalition and negotiates for the allocation of the surplus. While she is free to change coalition to seek better deals with other coalitions, she may lose her status if bargaining breaks down, in which case a new formateur is chosen. In this context, a formateur needs to reconcile the need to form the most productive coalition with the desire to maximize the share of output she can capture. The model provides a new perspective on legislative bargaining and helps explaining three well known empirical facts that have been hard to reconcile with non-cooperative models of multilateral bargaining: the absence of significant (or even positive) premia in ministerial allocations for formateurs and their parties; the occurrence of supermajorities; and delays in reaching agreements. While a number of important previous works have attempted to explain these facts individually, this model has the advantage of providing a unified and intuitive explanation for all of them.

WP 19/01

In “A nonlinear dynamic factor model of health and medical treatment” Franco Peracchi, with Claudio Rossetti, investigates the relationship between health and medical treatment and proposes a methodology which overcomes endogeneity problems. The authors set up and estimate a tractable dynamic factor model where observed health outcomes are driven by the individual's latent health stock. The dynamics of latent health reflects both exogenous health depreciation and endogenous health investments. The model allows for the investigation of the effect of medical treatment on current health, as well as on future medical treatment and health outcomes. The model is estimated by maximum simulated likelihood and minimum distance methods using a rich longitudinal data set from Italy. The data include detailed information on medical drug use, hospitalization, and mortality for a representative sample of elderly hypertensive patients. The results show that medical drug use significantly contributes to preventing future worsening of health. These findings suggest that policies aimed at increasing the awareness and the compliance of hypertensive patients help to reduce cardiovascular risks, consequent hospitalization and mortality.

2019

Politica Economica - Journal of Economic Policy (PEJEP)
Memorandum for a Tax Reform

July 10, 2019

EIEF, Rome

EIEF hosted the presentation of the Memorandum for a Tax Reform. The Italian fiscal policy system is already 50 years old. In the meanwhile, the share of labor income on the GDP has decreased substantially and fiscal competition has lowered effective personal and corporate tax rates. In addition to tax evasion, taxation on multinationals and property taxes, there is now public debate on topics such as flat tax and environmental taxes. In this workshop, Vincenzo Visco presented comprehensive tax reform that was discussed with a group of economists and tax law experts. The event was held in Italian. For further information see the Program.

5th Summer Workshop in Political Economy

June 24-25, 2019

EIEF, Rome

EIEF hosted the “5th Summer Workshop in Political Economy”. The aim was to analyze topics related to the institutional underpinning of fiscal policies. The workshop focused on research at the intersection of political economy, public finance, and macroeconomics. Topics of interest included: (i) the political determination of public policies (fiscal and monetary policy, social insurance, taxation, transfer programs, public investment, public employment, regulation, education, and health); (ii) the effects of political reforms; (iv) the impact of budgeting rules; (v) political polarization and partisan conflict; (vi) economic policy uncertainty and its determinants. The members of the organizing committee were: Marina Azzimonti (Stonybrook), Facundo Piguillem (EIEF) and Alessandro Riboni (Ecole Polytechnique). For further information see the Program.

4th Rome Junior Conference on Applied Microeconomics

June 20-21, 2019

EIEF, Rome

EIEF hosted the “4th Rome Junior Conference on Applied Microeconomics”. The  aim was to foster interaction and dissemination of research idea among researchers active in different areas of applied microeconomics. The selection of presenters gave preference to faculty at the early stages of their career. The organizers were: Francesco Decarolis (Bocconi University), Thibaut Lamadon (University of Chicago), Chirstopher Neilson (Princeton University), Andrea Pozzi (EIEF), Pietro Tebaldi (University of Chicago) and Michela Tincani (UCL). For further information see the Program.

8th Rome Conference on Macroeconomics (aka Pizzanomics)

June 10-11, 2019

EIEF, Rome

EIEF hosted the “8th Rome Conference on Macroeconomics”, a.k.a. Pizzanomics. The aim was to bring together junior economists from around the world with a strong interest in Macroeconomics, and to generate a friendly environment with intensive interaction, not only during the presentations but also informally before and after. The organizers were: Guillermo Ordoñez (University of Pennsylvania), Luigi Paciello (EIEF), Facundo Piguillem (EIEF), and Nicholas Trachter (FED, Richmond). For further information see the Program.

4th Rome Junior Finance Conference

June 4-5, 2019

EIEF, Rome

EIEF hosted the “4th Rome Junior Finance Conference”. The goal of the conference was to bring together junior researchers active in empirical and theoretical finance and create an opportunity for informal discussions and other academic-related activities. The organizers were: Sergei Kovbasyuk (EIEF), Adrien Matray (Princeton), Andrea Polo (LUISS, EIEF), Anton Tsoy (EIEF) and Luana Zaccaria (EIEF). For further information see the Program.

“Austerity: when it works and when it doesn't”
Book Presentation

April 2, 2019

EIEF, Rome

EIEF hosted the presentation of Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi’s new book, written together with Alberto Alesina.
The book gathers and analyzes data from 16 countries whose government had carried out austerity programs, especially those adopted in Europe post 2010 Greek crisis, and one clear result has emerged: cutting expenditures is less damaging for growth than increasing taxes.
There was an open discussion between the writers and Ignazio Visco, Marco Pagano and Luigi Paciello. For further details please see the Program.

Papers 2019

WP 19/01
A nonlinear dynamic factor model of health and medical treatment

Franco Peracchi - Claudio Rossetti

WP 19/02
Coalition Formation in Legislative Bargaining

Marco Battaglini

WP 19/03
Weight, Reference Points, and the Onset of Eating Disorders

Tiziano Arduini - Daniela Iorio - Eleonora Patacchini

WP 19/04
Tax Professionals: Tax-Evasion Facilitators or Information Hubs?

Marco Battaglini - Luigi Guiso - Chiara Lacava - Eleonora Patacchini

WP 19/05
Monetary Policy in a World of Cryptocurrencies

Pierpaolo Benigno

WP 19/06
The Extensive Margin of Aggregate Consumption Demand

Claudio Michelacci - Luigi Paciello - Andrea Pozzi

WP 19/07
Hurricanes, Climate Change Policies and Electoral Accountability

Stefano Gagliarducci - M. Daniele Paserman - Eleonora Patacchini

WP 19/08
Simple Fiscal Arithmetic of a Dual Currency Regime

Francesco Lippi

WP 19/09
(Macro) Prudential Taxation of Good News

Jean Flemming - Jean-Paul L’Huillier - Facundo Piguillem

WP 19/10
The Analytic Theory of a Monetary Shock

Fernando Alvarez - Francesco Lippi

WP 19/11
Posterior moments and quantiles for the normal location model with Laplace prior

Giuseppe De Luca - Jan R. Magnus - Franco Peracchi

WP 19/12
Multidimensional Diffusion Processes in Dynamic Online Networks

David Easley - Eleonora Patacchini - Christopher Rojas

   
   
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