Seminars 2009

Stanislav Anatolyev-New Economic School, Moscow

January 15, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Sequential Testing with Uniformly Distributed Size

Francesco Russo - Boston University (Job Market Seminar)

January 16, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

The Cost of the Legal System and the Hidden Economy

Eric Weese - MIT (Job Market Seminar)

January 19, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Political Mergers as Coalition Formation: Evidence from Japanese Municipal Amalgamations

Mathis Wagner - University of Chicago (Job Market Seminar)

January 20, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Understanding the Labor Market Impact of Immigration

Marc Hallin - Université Libre de Bruxelles

January 22, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure

Emilio Calvano - Toulouse School of Economics (Job Market Seminar)

January 23, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Pricing Payment Cards

Ufuk Akcigit - MIT (Job Market Seminar)

January 26, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Firm Size, Innovation Dynamics and Growth

Aspen Gorry- University of Chicago (Job Market Seminar)

January 27, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Labor Market Experience and Worker Flows

Sirio Aramonte - London Business School (Job Market Seminar)

January 30, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Option Returns

Giacomo Ponzetto - Harvard University (Job Market Seminar)

February 2, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Case Law vs. Statute Law: An Evolutionary Comparison

Hakki Yazici - University of Minnesota (Job Market Seminar)

February 4, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Efficient Investment in Children and Implications for Policy

Joshua Miller - Univeristy of Minnesota Twin Cities (Job Market Seminar)

February 6, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

The Difficulty of Being Fair

Stefano Sacchetto - London Business School (Job Market Seminar)

February 9, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Preemptive Bidding, Target Resistance and Takeover Premia: An Empirical Investigation

Bulent Guler- The University of Texas at Austin (Job Market Seminar)

February 12, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Innovations in Information Technology and the Mortgage Market

David Martinez Miera - CEMFI (Job Market Seminar)

February 13, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

The Creditworthiness of the Poor: A Model of the Grameen Bank

David Dorn - Boston University (Job Market Seminar)

February 17, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Price and Prejudice: The Interaction between Preferences and Incentives in the Dynamics of Racial Segregation

Roberto Piazza - University of Minnesota (Job Market Seminar)

February 20, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Growth and Crisis, Unavoidable connection?

Tobias Broer - European University Institute (Job Market Seminar)

February 23, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Domestic or Global Imbalances? Rising Inequality and the Fall in the US Current Account

Lutz Kilian- University of Michigan (Lunch Seminar)

February 24, 2009
from 12:30 pm to 1:30 pm

Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks

Andrea Pozzi - Stanford University (Job Market Seminar)

February 24, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Shopping Cost and Brand Exploration in Online Grocery

Gustaf Bruze - University of Chicago (Job Market Seminar)

February 27, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Schooling, Marriage, and Male and Female Consumption

Facundo Piguillem - University of Minnesota (Job Market Seminar)

March 9, 2009
from 3:30 pm to 5:00 pm

Heterogeneous Beliefs and Optimal Taxation

Bernard Salanié - Columbia University

March 9, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Matching with Trade-offs: Revealed Preferences over Competing Characteristics

Antoni Espasa-Universidad Carlos III

March 12, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Forecasting Disaggregates and Aggregate with Common Features

Silvia Barcellos - Princeton University (Job Market Seminar)

March 13, 2009
from 11:30 am to 1:00 pm

The Dynamics of Immigration and Wages

Leandro Carvalho - Princeton University (Job Market Seminar)

March 13, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Poverty and Time Preferences

Jonathan Halket - New York University (Job Market Seminar)

March 14, 2009
from 11:30 am to 1:00 pm

Home Ownership, Savings, and Mobility Over The Life Cycle

Klaus Adam-Mannheim University

March 16, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Stock Market Volatility and Learning

Hank Farber - Princeton University

March 17, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Are Voters Rational? Turnout in Union Representation Election. A Progress Report

Sung K. Ahn - Washington State University

March 19, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Estimation of Vector Error Correction Models with Mixed-Frequency Data 

Paolo Surico-Bank of England

March 23, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Monetary Policies and Low-Frequency Manifestations of the Quantity Theory

Victor Lavy-The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

March 26, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

The Good, Bad and Average: Evidence on the Scope and Scale of Ability Peer Effects in Schools

Georg Weizsäcker-LSE

March 30, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Do We Follow Others When We Should? A Simple Test of Rational Expectations

Ingrid Van Keilegom-Université catholique de Louvain

April 2, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Semiparametric Modeling and Estimation of the Dispersion Function in Regression

Keith Crocker-The Pennsylvania State University

April 6, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Optimal Managerial Compensation, Earnings Manipulation and Manager Ownership

Riccardo Scarpa-The University of Waikato

April 9, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Incorporating Model Uncertainty into the Generation of Efficient Stated Choice Experiments: A Model Averaging Approach

Workshop on Structural Approaches to Productivity and Industrial Dynamics (Part I)

April 16, 2009
from 2:00 pm to 5:30 pm

Full Program

Johannes Van Biesebroeck (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven)
Market Structure and Innovation: A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Automotive Industry

Volker Nocke (University of Oxford)
Globalization and the Size Distribution of Multiproduct Firms

Mark J. Roberts (Pennsylvania State University)
R&D Investment, Exporting, and Productivity Dynamics

Aleksey Tetenov-Collegio Carlo Alberto

April 16, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Measuring Precision of Statistical Inference on Partially Identified Parameters

Workshop on Structural Approaches to Productivity and Industrial Dynamics (Part II)

April 17, 2009
from 8:30 am to 5:30 pm

Full Program

James R. Tybout (Penn State) 
Firm Dynamics, Job Turnover, and Wage Distributions in an Open Economy

Carlos Daniel Santos (University of Alicante) 
Recovering the Sunk Costs of R&D: The Moulds Industry Case

Victor Aguirregabiria (University of Toronto)
A Dynamic Oligopoly Game of the US Airline Industry: Estimation and Policy Experiments

John Haltiwanger (University of Maryland and NBER) 
The Slow Growth of New Plants: Learning About Demand? 

Matthew Shum (California Institute of Technology HSS)
How Much Competition is a Secondary Market

Frederic Warzynski (Aarhus School of Business) 
Markups and Firm-Level Export Status

Anastasios Karantounias - Atlanta FED

April 20, 2009
from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm

Ramsey Taxation and Fear of Misspecification

Paula Bustos - Universitat Pompeu Fabra and CREI

April 20, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

The Impact of Trade on Technology and Skill Upgrading: Evidence from Argentina

Luca Anderlini - Georgetown University

April 27, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Communication and Learning

Marcus Feldman - Stanford University

April 28, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

The Growth of Technology and Maladaptation: an Application of Cultural Transmission

Serge Guillas-UCL

April 30, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Bivariate Splines for Spatial Functional Regression Models

Andrea Tambalotti-Federal Bank of New York

May 4, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

CONDI: A Cost-Of-Normal-Distortions Index

Paolo Zaffaroni - Imperial College London

May 7, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Generalized Least Squares Estimation of Panel with Common Shocks

Costas Azariadis - UCLA

May 18, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Capital Misallocation and Aggregate Factor Productivity

Gary Koop - University of Strathclyde

May 21, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Modeling the Dynamics of Inflation Compensation

George Akerlof - University of California, Berkeley

May 22, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Animal Spirits and The Economy

David Levine - Washington University

May 25, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Quality Ladders, Competition and Endogenous Growth

Edi Karni - Johns Hopkins University

May 28, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

A Theory of Bayesian Decision Making

Martijn Cremers - Yale University

May 29, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Thirty Years of Corporate Governance: Determinants and Equity Prices

Francis Vella - Georgetown University

June 4, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Triangular Semiparameteric Models featuring Two Dependent Endogenous Binary Outcomes

Diego Comin - Harvard Business School

June 9, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Medium Term Cycles in Developing Countries

Andrea Vindigni - Princeton University

June 15, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

The Political Economy of Science, Religion and Growth

Irina Telyukova - University of California - San Diego

June 22, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Precautionary Demand for Money in a Monetary Business Cycle Model

Fernando Alvarez - University of Chicago, Francesco Lippi - University of Sassari and Luigi Guiso - EUI Florence

June 30, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Durable consumption and asset management in the presence of transaction and information cost

Effi Benmelech - Harvard University and NBER

July 6, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Negotiating with Labour under Financial Distress

Aleh Tsyvinski - Yale University

July 13, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium

Martin Uribe - Columbia University

July 20, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

What’s News in Business Cycles

Karl Schlag - Universidad Pompeu Fabra

July 27, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Can Sanctions Induce Pessimism?An Experiment

Gianni De Nicolò - IMF

August 3, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Financial Intermediation, Competition, and Risk: A General Equilibrium Exposition

Kevin Lang - Boston University

October 1, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Social Ties and the Job Search of Recent Immigrants

Eric Ghysels - University of North Carolina

October 8, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

News - Good or Bad - and its Impact on Volatility Forecasting Over Multiple Horizons

Fabio Canova - Universitat Pompeu Fabra

October 12, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Does Money Matter in Shaping Domestic Business Cycles: An International Investigation

Francisco J. Ruge - Murcia - University of Montreal

October 19, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Sectoral Price Rigidity and Aggregate Dynamics

Jesus Carro - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

October 22, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Dynamic Binary Outcome Models with Maximal Heterogeneity

Mariassunta Giannetti - Stockholm School of Economics

October 26, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Do Cultural Differences Between Contracting Parties Matter? Evidence from Syndicated Bank Loans

Bartosz Mackowiak - European Central Bank

November 2, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Business Cycle Dynamics under Rational Inattention

Massimo Franchi - Università di Roma “La Sapienza”

November 5, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

A Representation of VAR Processes with Common Cyclical Features

Massimo Morelli - Columbia University

November 9, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Can Market Failure Cause Political Failure?

12th Conference of the ECB-CFS Research Network on “Learning from the Crisis: Financial Stability, Macroeconomic Policy and International Institutions (Part I)

November 12, 2009
from 9:00 am to 7:05 pm

Full Program

Opening Remarks

Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell (European Central Bank)

Session 1: Macro-Prudential Regulation and Supervision (I)

Chair: Xavier Freixas (University Pompeu Fabra)

Luigi Zingales (University of Chicago)
A New Capital Regulation for Large Financial Institutions (joint with Olivier Hart, Harvard University)
Presentation

Anton Korinek (University of Maryland)
Systematic Risk-Taking: Amplification Effects, Externalities, and Regulatory Responses
Presentation

Discussant: Sudipto Bhattacharya (London School of Economics)
Presentation

Keynote Speech 1: Patric Bolton (Columbia University)
Lessons and Consequences of the Crisis for Financial Regulation
Presentation

Session 2: Macro-Prudential Regulation and Supervision (II)

Chair: Philipp Hartmann (European Central Bank)

Emmanuel Farhi (Harvard University)
Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch and Systemic Bailouts (joint with Jean Tirole, Toulouse School of Economics)
Presentation

Discussant: Luigi Guiso (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance and European University Institute)
Presentation

Oren Sussman (Oxford University)
Liquidity, Contagion and Financial Crisis (joint with Alexander Guembel, Oxford University)
Presentation

Discussant: Ethan Cohen-Cole (University of Maryland)
Presentation

Keynote Speech 2: Mario Draghi (Banca d’Italia)
Challenges to Financial Stability and the Proposals of the Financial Stability Board

Session 3: Origines

Chair: Fabrizio Saccomanni (Banca d’Italia)

Rajdeep Sengupta (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Luis)
Where’s the Smoking Gun? A Study of Underwriting Standards for US Subprime Mortgages (joint with Geetesh Bhardwaj, The Vanguard Group)
Presentation

Angela Maddaloni (European Central Bank)
Bank Risk-Taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Lending Standards (joint with José-Luis Peydró, European Central Bank)
Presentation

Discussant: Jörg Rocholl (European School of Management and Technology)
Presentation

12th Conference of the ECB-CFS Research Network on “Learning from the Crisis: Financial Stability, Macroeconomic Policy and International Institutions (Part II)

November 13, 2009
from 9:00 am to 3:45 pm

Session 4: International Transmission and Real Effects

Chair: Salvatore Rossi (Banca d’Italia)

Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)
The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch During a Global Economic Crisis (joint with Hui Tong, International Monetary Fund)
Presentation

Sascha Steffen (University of Mannheim)
The Impact of the U.S. Financial Crisis on Global Retail Lending (joint with Manju Puri, Duke University and Jörg Rocholl, European School of Management and Technology)
Presentation

Erasmo Giambona (University of Amsterdam)
Liquidity Management and Corporate Investment During a Financial Crisis (joint with Murillo Campbell R. Harvey, Duke University)
Presentation

Discussant: Enrica Detragiache (International Monetary Fund)
Presentation

Keynote Speech 3: Olivier Blanchard (International Monetary Fund)
Global Liquidity and Reserves
Presentation

Session 5: Accounting Issues

Chair: Alberto Giovannini (Unifortune Asset Management SGR)

Christian Laux (Goethe University Frankfurt and Center for Financial Studies)
Did Fair Value Accounting Contribute to the Financial Crisis? (joint with Christian Leuz, University of Chicago)
Presentation

Harry Huizinga (Tilburg University)
Accounting Discretion of Banks During a Financial Crisis (joint with Luc Laeven, International Monetary Fund)
Presentation

Discussant: Paolo Angelini (Banca d’Italia)
Presentation

Closing remarks: Marco Pagano (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance and University of Naples Federico II)

Pedro Teles - FCEE, Universidade Católica Portuguesa

November 16, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Monetary Policy and the Financing of Firms

Roberto Renò - University of Siena

November 19, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Nonparametric Leverage Effects

Dezsö Szalay - University of Warwick-Bonn

November 23, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Screening and the Positive Correlation Between Risk and Incentives

Arnoud W.A. Boot - University of Amsterdam

November 30, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Competition and Entry in Banking:Implications for Capital Regulation

LABOUR Lectures: Costas Meghir - University College London

December 1, 2009
from 2:30 pm to 5:30 pm

LABOUR Lectures on “The Economics and Econometrics of Policy Evaluation: The Evaluation Problem and Methods of Evaluation”

Lectures Material

LABOUR Lectures: Costas Meghir - University College London

December 2, 2009
from 2:30 pm to 5:30 pm

LABOUR Lectures on “The Economics and Econometrics of Policy Evaluation: Applications:Drawn from the Following”

Lectures Material

LABOUR Lectures: Costas Meghir - University College London

December 3, 2009
from 9:00 am to 12:00 pm

LABOUR Lectures on “The Economics and Econometrics of Policy Evaluation: Using Economic Models for Policy Evaluation”

Lectures Material

Costas Meghir - University College London

December 3, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Matching, Sorting and Wages

Andrei Shleifer - Harvard University

December 9, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

What Comes to Mind

Francesco Giavazzi - Bocconi University

December 10, 2009
from 2:00 pm to 3:30 pm

Culture, Policies and Labor Market Outcomes

Tatiana Komarova - LSE

December 10, 2009
from 6:00 pm to 7:30 pm

Binary Choice Models with Discrete Regressors: Identification and Misspecification

Nicola Gennaioli - CREi

December 14, 2009
from 5:30 pm to 7:00 pm

Contractual Resolutions of Financial Distress

Katarina Juselius - University of Copenhagen

December 17, 2009
from 5:00 pm to 6:10 pm

The Long Swings Puzzle: what the Data Tell when Allowed to Speak Freely

Søren Johansen - University of Copenhagen

December 17, 2009
from 6:30 pm to 7:40 pm

Confronting the Economic Model With the Data

Abstract
Econometrics is about confronting economic models with the data. In doing so it is crucial to choose a statistical model that not only contains the economic model as a submodel, but also contains the data generating process. When this is the case, the statistical model can be analyzed by likelihood methods. When this is not the case, but likelihood methods are applied nonetheless, the result is incorrect inference. In his paper we illustrate the problem of possible incorrect inference with a recent application of a DSGE model to US data (Ireland, 2004). Specifically, this paper discusses two broad methodological questions.

1. How should a statistical model be chosen to achieve valid inference for the economic model?
2. Given a correctly chosen statistical model, can we rely on the asymptotic results found in the statistical literature for the analysis of the data at hand?

Using some simple examples, the paper first discusses some unfortunate consequences of applying Gaussian maximum likelihood when the chosen statistical model does not properly describe the data. It also demonstrates that even when the correct statistical model is chosen, asymptotic results derived for stationary processes cannot be used to conduct inference on the steady state value for a highly persistent stationary process.