Mismatch Cycles joint with Ana Figueiredo and Robert Ulbricht
Abstract:
We document new fact s about the cyclicality of worker–occupation mismatch in the US. In downtur ns, under-qualified workers are more likely to lose their jobs, consistent with the cleansing effect of recessions. New hires from unemployment, by co ntrast, are more mismatched in recessions, and this holds true for over- an d under-qualification. To account for the facts, we build a directed search model, with on-the-job learning about worker skills. Skills are multidimen sional and workers select into careers (tasks) based on what they believe t o be their comparative advantages. In the model, the increase in the mismat ch of new hires is a direct consequence of the cleansing. This is because w orkers subject to cleansing have high propensities to switch careers, and d ue to the learning, this leads to high uncertainty and mismatch.
DTSTAMP:20260403T183434Z DTSTART:20190416T130000Z DTEND:20190416T140000Z SEQUENCE:0 TRANSP:OPAQUE END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR