Malaria Risk and Civil Violence (with Matteo Cervellati, Elena Esposito and Simona Valmori)
Abstract:
Using geo-referenced data for Afr
ica we investigate the role of temporary health shocks, related to the risk
of malaria epidemics, for civil violence. Following the epidemiological li
terature, we identify climatological conditions that exhibit elevated risk
for malaria outbreaks at the cell-year and cell-month level. Identification
exploits the contrast of the occurrence of these conditions in cells with
low malaria exposure and cells with high malaria exposure. In the low expos
ure areas, the population has lower genetic and acquired immunities, relati
ve to cells with no or very high exposure. Consequently, it is hypothesized
that the impact of suitable weather conditions on the likelihood of malari
a outbreaks is amplified in these cells. Due to the short incubation time,
malaria outbreaks can be identified at high temporal resolution. Exploiting
within cell variability both at yearly and monthly frequencies, the analys
is can account for unobserved heterogeneity by including a rich set of time
and cell controls, including cell x year specific determinants of civil co
nflicts and seasonal patterns within the year. The results suggest that the
occurrence of unusually suitable conditions for malaria outbreaks in cells
with low malaria exposure significantly increases the likelihood of civil
violence compared to cells with high malaria exposure. The results are robu
st to a comprehensive set of checks.