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BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:cdcfa48a61fc0678795c7508612d02e7
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20190917T095452
SUMMARY:Lunch Seminar: Travis J. Berge - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:What Is the Output Gap and when Do We know It? Time-varying Uncertainty of 
 the Federal Reserve's Output Gap Estimates \nAbstract:\nA factor stochastic
  volatility model estimates the common component to forecasts of the output
  gap produced by the staff of the Federal Reserve Board, its time-varying v
 olatility, and time-varying, horizon-specific forecast uncertainty. The com
 mon component to the output gap forecasts identifies a persistent and highl
 y procyclical business cycle. Unexpected increases to the output gap produc
 e strong, persistent responses in other macroeconomic variables, indicating
  that the output gap is a valuable proxy of aggregate demand. However, fore
 casts of the output gap are very uncertain, even well after the fact: the s
 tandard deviation an estimate of the output gap eight quarters ago has a 70
  percent credible region of about +/-.5 percentage points, the uncertainty 
 surrounding output gap forecasts is much larger. Finally, increased macroec
 onomic uncertainty, as measured by the output gap's time-varying volatility
 , produces pronounced negative responses to other macroeconomic variables.\
 n
DTSTAMP:20260404T124217Z
DTSTART:20191016T130000Z
DTEND:20191016T140000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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