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UID:125a34fb8edfdb286b5082662161eba5
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20170426T190006
SUMMARY:Lunch Seminar: Antonio M. Conti - Banca d’Italia
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:Sentiments in the Times of Debt\nAbstract:\n In spite of a longstanding int
 erest for the role of confidence in macroeconomics, no widespread agreement
  exists on its quantitative relevance for economic fluctuations. We study t
 his issue by means of a Structural VAR model of the US business cycle, allo
 wing for time variation in the propagation of shocks and disentangling “sen
 timent” shocks from those related to news about future productivity. We fin
 d that the importance of sentiment shocks for variation in output, consumpt
 ion, hours worked and financial conditions does indeed change over time. To
  shed light on this result we turn our attention to the transmission of sen
 timent shocks in state-dependance models. We show that excessive private an
 d households debt strongly amplifies the effects of such shocks. Our findin
 gs are consistent with theoretical models embedding confidence as source of
  business cycle and call for a close evaluation of agents’ beliefs by polic
 ymarkers in times of financial stress.\n
DTSTAMP:20260422T104240Z
DTSTART:20170331T130000Z
DTEND:20170331T140000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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