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UID:92f378027d3af21e43a5f13a55c58bfa
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20241107T094133
SUMMARY:Lunch Seminar: Pietro Reichlin - LUISS G. Carli, EIEF
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:\n\nWelfare Effect of Social Security: With Uninsured Income Risk (with Gae
 tano Bloise) \n\n\nAbstract:\nWe provide an analytical decomposition o
 f the welfare effect of raising the contribution rate of a pay-as-you-go so
 cial security at equilibrium, in a standard two-period lived overlapping ge
 nerations economy with productive uncertainty and old age idiosyncratic lab
 or income risks. Assuming Epstein-Zin preference representation and Cobb-Do
 uglas technology, the welfare effect can be decomposed into a "direct'" eff
 ect, which takes into account the inter-generations reallocation of consump
 tion and risk at status quo, and a "general equilibrium" effect, that takes
  into account the reallocation of capital and labor. The relevant statistic
 s that affect these two components are the growth-adjusted dominant root of
  the stochastic discount factor at the competitive equilibrium and the cova
 riance between wages and individual labor productivity. The former is negat
 ive (positive) under dynamic efficiency (inefficiency) and latter is positi
 ve under crowding out, because a lower capital accumulation reduces the ris
 k associated with the interaction between aggregate and individual uncertai
 nty. In a calibration exercise, we show that the net effect is positive for
  empirically plausible values of the long run average safe rate, GDP growth
  and for a large enough risk aversion.\n
DTSTAMP:20260421T083739Z
DTSTART:20241204T130000Z
DTEND:20241204T140000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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