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UID:00860d1be744878df2843d81d0e67ac7
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20250626T063350
SUMMARY:Federica Romei - University of Oxford
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:<p><em><strong>Unequal Decoupling</strong></em></p><p>Abstract:</p><p style
 ="text-align: justify;">Who gains and who loses from geopolitical fragmenta
 tion? We develop a general-equilibrium, quantitative framework that incorpo
 rates cross-country heterogeneity in income and wealth inequality, capturin
 g rich income dynamics in both advanced and emerging economies. We then con
 sider two fragmentation scenarios: the closure of the United States or of C
 hina to trade and financial flows with the rest of the world. We find that 
 in the United States, only households at the top of the wealth distribution
  experience welfare gains in both scenarios, while all other households inc
 ur losses. Outside the United States, the average welfare outcome is genera
 lly positive when the United States closes, as capital becomes more abundan
 t in all countries. The reverse is generally true when China ceases lending
 . These average effects mask significantly heterogeneous impacts of these s
 hocks on workers and owners of capital in each country.</p>
DTSTAMP:20260525T203206Z
DTSTART:20251110T163000Z
DTEND:20251110T180000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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