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UID:00860d1be744878df2843d81d0e67ac7
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20250626T063350
SUMMARY:Federica Romei - University of Oxford
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:\n\nUnequal Decoupling\n\n\nAbstract:\nWho gains and who loses from geopoli
 tical fragmentation? We develop a general-equilibrium, quantitative framewo
 rk that incorporates cross-country heterogeneity in income and wealth inequ
 ality, capturing rich income dynamics in both advanced and emerging economi
 es. We then consider two fragmentation scenarios: the closure of the United
  States or of China to trade and financial flows with the rest of the world
 . We find that in the United States, only households at the top of the weal
 th distribution experience welfare gains in both scenarios, while all other
  households incur losses. Outside the United States, the average welfare ou
 tcome is generally positive when the United States closes, as capital becom
 es more abundant in all countries. The reverse is generally true when China
  ceases lending. These average effects mask significantly heterogeneous imp
 acts of these shocks on workers and owners of capital in each country.\n
DTSTAMP:20260525T193436Z
DTSTART:20251110T163000Z
DTEND:20251110T180000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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