BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//jEvents 2.0 for Joomla//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:38b372a51aa90289aec62caf1a373c95
CATEGORIES:Seminars
CREATED:20250930T072555
SUMMARY:Valerie Ramey - Stanford University
DESCRIPTION;ENCODING=QUOTED-PRINTABLE:\n\nWhy Didn't the U.S. Unemployment Rate Rise at the End of WWII\n\n\nAbst
 ract:\nThis paper investigates why the U.S. unemployment rate rose only a f
 ew percentage points despite the dramatic decline in government spending an
 d other upheaval at the end of World War II. Using a new longitudinal data 
 set based on archival sources and government surveys, we study the many fac
 ets of this question. Our findings suggest the following answers.  Fir
 st, the dramatic decline in government spending led to a significantly smal
 ler decrease in GDP than predicted by standard Keynesian models.  Inst
 ead, private job creation surged as private activity was “crowded in” by th
 e fall in government spending.  Second, even conditional on the actual
  fall in GDP, the unemployment rate rose much less than predicted by Okun’s
  Law.  We use a new decomposition method to show that unusual movement
 s in labor force participation rates, hours worked, and productivity led to
  a breakdown in Okun’s law during the 1940s.  Third, the U.S. labor ma
 rket worked with astounding efficiency: despite large sectoral shifts at th
 e end of the war, most of the workers who separated from their jobs moved d
 irectly into new jobs without experiencing unemployment. All of these facto
 rs lined up to create a post-war boom in the U.S.\n
DTSTAMP:20260416T210229Z
DTSTART:20260325T043000Z
DTEND:20260325T180000Z
SEQUENCE:0
TRANSP:OPAQUE
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR