COVID-19 Forum

Here you can find a selection of short notes on the ongoing pandemic crisis, mostly focusing on its economic implications. Some of the notes are in Italian. The work contained in this page is in-progress, and immediacy is privileged over completeness.

Expected end-date of the pandemic in Italy as of March 29, 2020
  Figure6 29

Table1 29


Forecast, aggregate and by region of the number of new cases in Italy, by date. For methodology and details see the daily note.

By EIEF Faculty

By Luigi Guiso and Daniele Terlizzese (in Italian).
An analysis of the impact of the economic shock on the households whose components work in the sectors directly affected by the lockdown decided on March 23.

By Luigi Guiso and Daniele Terlizzese (in Italian)
Some thoughts on the nature of the economic crisis entailed by the social distancing measures enacted on March 11 to contain the pandemic, with an analysis of the role and limits of the standard responses to “flatten the curve” of the economic impact and a suggestion about another possible response (appeared in the Italian newspaper: Il foglio).

By Luigi Guiso and Daniele Terlizzese (in Italian)
Argues that the period of lockdown should be seized to reorganize production processes and make the working environment safer, to restart production as soon as possible (appeared in the Italian newspaper: Il foglio).

By Luigi Guiso and Daniele Terlizzese (in Italian)
Argues that letting the pandemics spread would have a larger cost, not only in terms of human lives, but also for the economy (will appear in the Italian newspaper: Il foglio).

By Francesco Lippi, Fernando Alvarez, David Argente
By Facundo Piguillem and Liyan Shi
Two papers that uses a simple Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiology model, calibrated with available micro data, to study the optimal lockdown policy. The first (in-progress; see the slides) finds that a total economic lockdown for about 5 weeks, followed by a fast relaxation, is the optimal strategy. The second obtains similar results, allowing for a concern for consumption smoothing that increases the length of the lockdown but reduces its intensity. The paper also explores the alternative of massive random testing, showing that it could generate sizeable welfare gains.

By Markus Brunnermeier, Jean-Pierre Landau, Marco Pagano and Ricardo Reis
A proposal on how to channel funds to firms facing a temporary but sharp drop in their revenues. Appeared in Vox-EU and in Italian, on il Sole 24 ore.

By Cecilia Sala, Francesco Del Prato and Matteo Paradisi (in Italian)
A series of videos on how to read the numbers of the pandemics.

By Franco Peracchi
A daily note with the Italian data on the pandemic and a forecast of the end-date of the contagion, for the country as a whole and for each region.

By Fabiano Schivardi (in Italian)
Computes the financial needs of firms facing a liquidity squeeze due to the fall in revenues (appeared in the Italian online newspaper: La Voce).

By other researchers

By Andrew Atkeson
Details and simulation of a dynamic model of the contagion. The bottom line is similar to the one offered by the Imperial College Response Team.

By Martin Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo, Mathias Trabandt
Integrates the epidemiologic model (susceptible-infected-recovered; SIR) with a macro model, arguing that the competitive equilibrium is inefficient and the optimal policy involves restricting consumption and work, alleviating the number of deaths at the expense of a deeper recession.

By Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
A careful analysis of the economic consequences of the pandemic crisis and of the tools to address it.

By the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
The results of a micro-simulation, epidemiological model, documenting the spread of the contagion and the effectiveness – or lack thereof – of various measures of social distancing. Highlights the likelihood of multiple waves of contagion, unless strict measures of social distancing are kept in place until a vaccine is available.

By the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team.
Another micro simulation showing, for each country, the predicted number of contagion and deaths, as well as the effects of mitigation and suppression policies.

By Tomas Pueyo
An informed and sobering account on the spread of the contagion and on the measures to contain it, with lots of useful data and links.

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