Decomposing the Rise of the Populist Right" with Oren Danieli, Noam Gidron, and Shinnosuke Kikuchi

Abstract:

Over the past decades, the support of populist radical right parties has dramatically increased. We decompose the rise of the populist right in Europe into three potential channels: changes in voter characteristics, changes in party supply, and changes in the weights voters place on certain issues. We merge data on voter characteristics, including opinions and demographics, from the Integrated Value Survey with data on party positions from the Comparative Manifesto Project. We estimate voting weights using a probabilistic voting model. In contrast to a common view, we find no evidence that shifts in the characteristics of voters or the positions of parties pushed voters to the populist right. The major driver behind the success of the populist right in the last decade lies in the rising importance voters attach to the issues on which populist radical right parties campaign. Specifically, we find that voters place less weight on economic issues and that conservative voters place a more positive weight on culturally conservative party positions.